Hangzhou Greentown 4–1 liaoning hongyun FC

Hangzhou Greentown

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

liaoning hongyun FC

8/11/2019

League One · Round 21Yellow Dragon Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown56%

×Draw22%

liaoning hongyun FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hangzhou GreentownExpected goals in this matchliaoning hongyun FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.07

Hangzhou Greentown

1.88

liaoning hongyun FC

1.07

Hangzhou Greentown creates 76% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

1.89

creates per match

1.10

1.04

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.89

liaoning hongyun FC

1.10

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.04

liaoning hongyun FC

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

liaoning hongyun FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw

79%

Hangzhou Greentown or liaoning hongyun FC

78%

Draw or liaoning hongyun FC

44%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

32%

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

85%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

56%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

29%

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals

66%

liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals

29%

liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

72%

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.04 · 54 matches

liaoning hongyun FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.89 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.88

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.10 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

56%

level

22%

liaoning hongyun FC scores more

21%

Hangzhou Greentown at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff