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liaoning hongyun FC vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
7/7/2019League OneLeague One · Round 16Tiexi New District Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC37%
×Draw27%
Guizhou Zhicheng37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

liaoning hongyun FC
1.27
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 41 away

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.17
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.50
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw
63%
liaoning hongyun FC or Guizhou Zhicheng
73%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
63%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
16%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
72%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
36%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
14%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
72%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
36%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
50%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more
37%
level
27%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
37%

liaoning hongyun FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "liaoning hongyun FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: liaoning hongyun FC vs Guizhou Zhicheng

liaoning hongyun FC and Guizhou Zhicheng drew 1-1 in League One on July 7, 2019.

The match was played at Tiexi New District Sports Center in Shenyang.