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Guizhou Zhicheng vs liaoning hongyun FC — League One 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
3/10/2019League OneLeague One · Round 1Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng47%
×Draw25%
liaoning hongyun FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.58
liaoning hongyun FC
1.14

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 39% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.30
liaoning hongyun FC
1.10

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.18
liaoning hongyun FC
1.87

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

liaoning hongyun FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
73%
Guizhou Zhicheng or liaoning hongyun FC
75%
Draw or liaoning hongyun FC
53%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
24%
liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
79%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
47%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
21%
liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
68%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
32%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
63%
liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

liaoning hongyun FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.10 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
47%
level
25%
liaoning hongyun FC scores more
27%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guizhou Zhicheng 0–0 liaoning hongyun FC

Guizhou Zhicheng and liaoning hongyun FC drew 0-0 in League One on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center in Guiyang.