Leyton Orient 3–1 Walsall: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Walsall

C. Wilkinson 75'

M. Harrold 60'

J. Widdowson 48'

S. Sinclair 21'

10/12/2019

League Two · Round 13The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient42%

×Draw27%

Walsall31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.13

Leyton Orient

1.36

Walsall

1.13

Leyton Orient creates 20% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 156 away

1.41

creates per match

1.13

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Walsall

1.13

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Walsall

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

69%

Leyton Orient or Walsall

73%

Draw or Walsall

58%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

20%

Walsall wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

74%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

39%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

16%

Walsall 1+ goals

68%

Walsall 2+ goals

31%

Walsall 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

57%

Walsall (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Walsall attack 1.13 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

42%

level

27%

Walsall scores more

31%

Leyton Orient at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

R. Gaffney

Walsall · F

7.7

Match Events

15'

Zak Jules

21'

S. Sinclair↳ R. Gaffney

33'

48'

59'

60'

64'

C. Norman← D. Guthrie

68'

G. Marsh← D. Gorman

68'

J. Gordon← W. McDonald

69'

E. Adebayo← R. Holden

75'

C. Wilkinson↳ J. Brophy

80'

80'

83'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonWalsall

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots15

2Corners10

16Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots15

6On Target3

4Off Target7

2Blocked5

9Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

305Total Passes404

211Accurate Passes306

69%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides5