Leyton Orient 2–0 Southend: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Southend

C. Wilkinson 78'

J. McAnuff 53'

12/29/2020

League Two · Round 21The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Leyton Orient46%

×Draw27%

Southend27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchSouthend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.01

Leyton Orient

1.42

Southend

1.01

Leyton Orient creates 41% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 31 away

1.41

creates per match

0.90

1.13

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Southend

0.90

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Southend

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Southend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

73%

Leyton Orient or Southend

73%

Draw or Southend

54%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

23%

Southend wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

76%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

41%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

17%

Southend 1+ goals

64%

Southend 2+ goals

27%

Southend 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

63%

Southend (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Southend away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Southend defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Southend attack 0.90 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

46%

level

27%

Southend scores more

27%

Leyton Orient at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. McAnuff

Leyton Orient · M

8.3

Match Events

52'

53'

53'

69'

69'

L. Walsh← A. Nathaniel-George

78'

C. Wilkinson↳ J. McAnuff

79'

G. Halford← J. Olayinka

85'

H. Kyprianou← J. McAnuff

90'

Danny Johnson

90'

Lee Angol

90+2'

R. Sotiriou← D. Johnson

90+4'

J. Dayton← C. Clay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonSouthend

Overview

69%Possession31%

11Total Shots8

7Corners3

18Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target1

4Off Target3

2Blocked4

8Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

470Total Passes204

382Accurate Passes116

81%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1