Southend 2–2 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Southend

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Leyton Orient

B. Reeves 90'

B. Corr 61'

D. Mooney 72'

S. Batt 8'

2/20/2013

League #46 · Sectional FinalsRoots Hall Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Southend55%

×Draw22%

Leyton Orient24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthendExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.25

Southend

2.00

Leyton Orient

1.25

Southend creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Southend

2.00

Leyton Orient

1.50

allows per match

Southend

1.00

Leyton Orient

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southend+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southend ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Southend or draw

76%

Southend or Leyton Orient

78%

Draw or Leyton Orient

45%

Winning margin

Southend wins by 2+

32%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Southend 1+ goals

86%

Southend 2+ goals

59%

Southend 3+ goals

32%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

71%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

36%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Southend (draw refunded)

70%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southend at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southend attack 2.00 + Leyton Orient defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Leyton Orient attack 1.50 + Southend defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Southend scores more

55%

level

22%

Leyton Orient scores more

24%

Southend at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Southend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

35'

61'

72'

74'

A. Griffith← M. Rowlands

90'

B. Reeves

Southend

Leyton

1

5

6

2

21

22

▼

23

7

17

28

⚽

Batt

39

⚽

1

23

2

16

15

18

27

⚽

Reeves

14

Hurst

12

Lund

30

▼

Woodyard

20

Assombalo

35'▲B. Corr←▼A. Woodyard

Southend substitutes

10Corr3Straker7Eastwood17Bentley11Mayor

74'▲A. Griffith←▼M. Rowlands

Leyton Orient substitutes

8Griffith11Smith15Clarke27Smith4Vincelot

League #46: Southend 2–2 Leyton Orient

Southend and Leyton Orient drew 2-2 in League #46 on February 20, 2013.

Goals: S. Batt (8'), B. Corr (61'), D. Mooney (72'), B. Reeves (90').

The match was played at Roots Hall Stadium.

Southend vs Leyton Orient — League #46 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #46: Southend 2–2 Leyton Orient