Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leyton Orient vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
2/20/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 30The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Leyton Orient41%
×Draw27%
Port Vale32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.30
Port Vale
1.11

Leyton Orient creates 17% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 118 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.43
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.06
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
68%
Leyton Orient or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
59%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
18%
Port Vale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
73%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
37%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
14%
Port Vale 1+ goals
67%
Port Vale 2+ goals
30%
Port Vale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
56%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.06 · 89 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.43 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Leyton Orient defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
41%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
32%

Leyton Orient at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Port Vale

Leyton Orient and Port Vale drew 1-1 in League Two on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at The Breyer Group Stadium in London.