Leyton Orient 1–2 Hartlepool: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hartlepool

J. McAnuff 18'

R. Oates 47'

J. Franks 45+2'

9/16/2017

League #43 · Round 13Matchroom Stadium (London)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leyton Orient43%

×Draw27%

Hartlepool29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.07

Leyton Orient

1.36

Hartlepool

1.07

Leyton Orient creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 26 away

1.00

creates per match

1.15

1.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.00

Hartlepool

1.15

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.00

Hartlepool

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

71%

Leyton Orient or Hartlepool

73%

Draw or Hartlepool

57%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

20%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

74%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

39%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

16%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

66%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

29%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

60%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.00 + Hartlepool defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hartlepool attack 1.15 + Leyton Orient defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

43%

level

27%

Hartlepool scores more

29%

Leyton Orient at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

45+2'

47'

65'

72'

78'

86'

90+6'

Leyton

Hartlepool

Loach

▼

Watson

Magnay

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Davis

65'▲S. Dalby←▼D. Mooney

78'▲H. Ochieng←▼C. Clay

86'▲R. Boco←▼J. Koroma

Leyton Orient substitutes

DalbyOchiengBocoClarkSargeant

Manager: C. Harrison

72'▲D. Rodney←▼R. Oates

90+6'▲L. Laing←▼K. Watson

Hartlepool substitutes

RodneyLaingNewtonMunnsDonnelly

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Hartlepool

Hartlepool beat Leyton Orient 2-1 in League #43 on September 16, 2017.

Goals: J. McAnuff (18'), J. Franks (45+2'), R. Oates (47').

The match was played at Matchroom Stadium (London).

Leyton Orient vs Hartlepool — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Hartlepool