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Hartlepool vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
3/12/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 36The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool36%
×Draw27%
Leyton Orient37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.20
Leyton Orient
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 94 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.20
Leyton Orient
1.17

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.30
Leyton Orient
1.20

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
63%
Hartlepool or Leyton Orient
73%
Draw or Leyton Orient
64%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
15%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
70%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
34%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
12%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
71%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
35%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
49%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hartlepool scores more
36%
level
27%
Leyton Orient scores more
37%

Leyton Orient at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
O. OdusinaHartlepoolHartlepool · D
8.0

Match Events

16'
Hector Kyprianou
45+2'
Omar Beckles
61'
L. Molyneux← J. White
61'
M. Carver← J. Grey
67'
A. Drinan← P. Smyth
79'
Ruel Sotiriou
82'
I. Fletcher← T. Crawford
83'
F. Nouble← H. Smith

Possession

47%Hartlepool

Shots

8Hartlepool

Pass accuracy

49%Hartlepool

Statistics

HartlepoolLeyton
Overview
47%Possession53%
8Total Shots11
2Corners3
9Fouls19
Shots
8Total Shots11
3On Target5
4Off Target5
1Blocked1
7Inside Box6
1Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
343Total Passes391
224Accurate Passes270
65%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls19
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Hartlepool vs Leyton Orient

Hartlepool and Leyton Orient drew 0-0 in League Two on March 12, 2022.

Leyton Orient controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at The Suit Direct Stadium in Hartlepool, County Durham.