Hartlepool 1–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Hartlepool

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

C. Jennings 81'

P. Smyth 48'

3/25/2023

League Two · Round 38The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool36%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HartlepoolExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.23

Hartlepool

1.20

Leyton Orient

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 94 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

1.30

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Hartlepool

1.20

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Hartlepool

1.30

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw

63%

Hartlepool or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

64%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+

15%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals

70%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

34%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

12%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

71%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

35%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

49%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hartlepool scores more

36%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

37%

Leyton Orient at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

P. Smyth

Leyton Orient · M

7.9

Match Events

48'

P. Smyth↳ G. Moncur

58'

Jordan Brown

62'

Ruel Sotiriou

63'

W. McDonald← E. Pruti

68'

R. Hunt← J. Brown

71'

73'

79'

79'

79'

J. McCart← J. Sweeney

81'

C. Jennings

88'

C. Clay← G. Moncur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HartlepoolLeyton

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots8

3Corners6

5Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots8

4On Target2

5Off Target4

2Blocked2

8Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

352Total Passes327

222Accurate Passes202

63%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls18

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

League Two: Hartlepool 1–1 Leyton Orient

Hartlepool and Leyton Orient drew 1-1 in League Two on March 25, 2023.

Goals: P. Smyth (48'), C. Jennings (81').

Hartlepool controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at The Suit Direct Stadium in Hartlepool, County Durham.

Hartlepool vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Hartlepool 1–1 Leyton Orient