Leyton Orient 2–0 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

R. Sotiriou 73'

P. Smyth 52'

10/25/2022

League Two · Round 13Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient45%

×Draw27%

Gillingham28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.01

Leyton Orient

1.38

Gillingham

1.01

Leyton Orient creates 37% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 101 away

1.41

creates per match

0.90

1.13

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Gillingham

0.90

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Gillingham

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

72%

Leyton Orient or Gillingham

73%

Draw or Gillingham

55%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

22%

Gillingham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

75%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

40%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

16%

Gillingham 1+ goals

64%

Gillingham 2+ goals

27%

Gillingham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

62%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Gillingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gillingham attack 0.90 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

45%

level

27%

Gillingham scores more

28%

Leyton Orient at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

P. Smyth

Leyton Orient · F

7.7

Match Events

52'

P. Smyth↳ T. Archibald

55'

Jordan Brown

63'

R. Sotiriou← J. Wareham

67'

S. Kashket← S. OKeefe

67'

R. Law← C. Alexander

69'

I. El Mizouni← J. Brown

72'

Daniel Happe

73'

R. Sotiriou

75'

M. Mandron← L. Walker

75'

A. MacDonald← J. Green

80'

H. Mnoga← W. Wright

81'

Dom Jefferies

82'

C. Clay← T. James

82'

C. Kelman← T. Archibald

83'

S. Duke-McKenna← P. Smyth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonGillingham

Overview

64%Possession36%

9Total Shots10

1Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots10

2On Target1

4Off Target6

3Blocked3

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

449Total Passes250

334Accurate Passes137

74%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2