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Gillingham vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
C. Alexander 76' (pen)
A. MacDonald 16'
4/18/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 43MEMS Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Gillingham37%
×Draw28%
Leyton Orient35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.16
Leyton Orient
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 94 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.12
Leyton Orient
1.17

allows per match

Gillingham
1.09
Leyton Orient
1.20

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
65%
Gillingham or Leyton Orient
72%
Draw or Leyton Orient
63%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
15%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
69%
Gillingham 2+ goals
32%
Gillingham 3+ goals
11%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
68%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
31%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
51%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.12 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Gillingham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gillingham scores more
37%
level
28%
Leyton Orient scores more
35%

Gillingham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
G. MorrisGillinghamGillingham · G
7.2

Match Events

14'
Omar Beckles
16'
A. MacDonald↳ S. Williams
19'
J. McCart← K. Sadlier
21'
Darren Pratley
26'
Paul Smyth
32'
Max Ehmer
45+3'
Rob Hunt
60'
A. Drinan← R. Sotiriou
60'
J. Brown← D. Pratley
70'
O. Hawkins← T. Nichols
73'
Ed Turns
74'
E. Coleman← S. Williams
76'
C. AlexanderPenalty
77'
C. Kelman← P. Smyth
77'
S. Ogie← E. Turns

Possession

47%Gillingham

Shots

6Gillingham

Pass accuracy

50%Gillingham

Statistics

GillinghamLeyton
Overview
47%Possession53%
6Total Shots4
2Corners2
9Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots4
3On Target1
1Off Target1
2Blocked2
3Inside Box1
3Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
467Total Passes514
397Accurate Passes442
85%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Gillingham vs Leyton Orient

Gillingham beat Leyton Orient 2-0 in League Two on April 18, 2023.

Goals: A. MacDonald (16'), C. Alexander (76' pen).

Leyton Orient controlled possession (53%) and registered 4 shots to 6.

The match was played at MEMS Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham, Kent.