Leyton Orient 2–4 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Forest Green

J. Maguire-Drew 78'

M. Harrold 54'

J. Mondal 88'

M. Stevens 43'

E. Adams 33', 15'

11/23/2019

League Two · Round 19The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Leyton Orient39%

×Draw27%

Forest Green35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.25

Leyton Orient

1.33

Forest Green

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 90 away

1.41

creates per match

1.36

1.13

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Forest Green

1.36

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Forest Green

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

65%

Leyton Orient or Forest Green

73%

Draw or Forest Green

61%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

17%

Forest Green wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

74%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

38%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

15%

Forest Green 1+ goals

71%

Forest Green 2+ goals

36%

Forest Green 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

53%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Forest Green defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Forest Green attack 1.36 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

39%

level

27%

Forest Green scores more

35%

Leyton Orient at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Maguire-Drew

Leyton Orient · M

8.1

Match Events

15'

33'

40'

40'

43'

M. Stevens↳ J. Aitchison

46'

J. Maguire-Drew← D. Gorman

49'

Jamie Turley

54'

Ebou Adams

54'

M. Harrold↳ J. Maguire-Drew

67'

J. Mondal← A. Collins

78'

K. Dawson← J. Aitchison

78'

J. Maguire-Drew↳ L. Angol

88'

J. Mondal↳ M. Stevens

90'

J. Alabi← S. Ling

90'

N. McGinley← M. Stevens

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonForest

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots13

10Corners2

19Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots13

4On Target8

7Off Target1

4Blocked4

10Inside Box12

5Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

369Total Passes336

266Accurate Passes228

72%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1