Forest Green 1–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Leyton Orient

M. Stevens 10'

R. Sotiriou 67'

3/15/2022

League Two · Round 37The Fully Charged New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Forest Green36%

×Draw28%

Leyton Orient36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.19

Forest Green

1.20

Leyton Orient

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 94 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

1.22

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Forest Green

1.20

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Forest Green

1.22

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

64%

Forest Green or Leyton Orient

72%

Draw or Leyton Orient

64%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

15%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

70%

Forest Green 2+ goals

34%

Forest Green 3+ goals

12%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

70%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

33%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

50%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Forest Green scores more

36%

level

28%

Leyton Orient scores more

36%

Forest Green at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

E. Coleman

Leyton Orient · M

7.3

Match Events

10'

M. Stevens↳ J. Matt

27'

S. Ogie← G. Ray

58'

Ebou Adams

61'

T. Archibald← H. Smith

63'

Regan Hendry

67'

R. Sotiriou↳ T. Archibald

72'

J. Aitchison← R. Hendry

76'

J. March← M. Stevens

80'

P. Smyth← R. Sotiriou

81'

Connor Wood

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForestLeyton

Overview

46%Possession54%

5Total Shots7

2Corners2

19Fouls5

Shots

5Total Shots7

2On Target1

3Off Target2

0Blocked4

2Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

349Total Passes415

229Accurate Passes283

66%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls5

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3