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Forest Green vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Forest Green
Forest Green
CANC
00:00
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
3/31/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 36The New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Forest Green36%
×Draw28%
Leyton Orient36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Green
1.20
Leyton Orient
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 94 away

creates per match

Forest Green
1.20
Leyton Orient
1.17

allows per match

Forest Green
1.22
Leyton Orient
1.20

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw
64%
Forest Green or Leyton Orient
72%
Draw or Leyton Orient
64%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+
15%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals
70%
Forest Green 2+ goals
34%
Forest Green 3+ goals
12%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
70%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
33%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)
50%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Forest Green scores more
36%
level
28%
Leyton Orient scores more
36%

Forest Green at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Forest Green vs Leyton Orient — Match Preview

Forest Green face Leyton Orient on March 31, 2020 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Forest Green host Leyton Orient at The New Lawn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.