Leyton Orient 0–1 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Exeter City

A. Richards 40'

10/1/2024

League One · Round 9Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Leyton Orient50%

×Draw25%

Exeter City25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.09

Leyton Orient

1.63

Exeter City

1.09

Leyton Orient creates 50% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.16

creates per match

0.93

1.26

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.16

Exeter City

0.93

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.26

Exeter City

2.09

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.07on par

Exeter City+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

75%

Leyton Orient or Exeter City

75%

Draw or Exeter City

50%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

26%

Exeter City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

80%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

48%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

22%

Exeter City 1+ goals

66%

Exeter City 2+ goals

30%

Exeter City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

66%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 11 matches

Exeter City away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.09 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.16 + Exeter City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.63

Exeter City attack 0.93 + Leyton Orient defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

50%

level

25%

Exeter City scores more

25%

Leyton Orient at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Whitworth

Exeter City · G

8.2

Match Events

40'

A. Richards↳ J. Magennis

44'

Ilmari Niskanen

46'

B. Cooper← L. Warrington

48'

53'

60'

63'

63'

63'

S. Clare← D. Ball

73'

C. Watts← K. Doyle

77'

Jordan Brown

77'

S. Perkins← J. Simpson

83'

S. Cox← J. Magennis

83'

M. Carayol← E. Francis

89'

Pierce Sweeney

90+3'

Caleb Watts

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonExeter

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots9

4Corners6

11Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots9

5On Target2

6Off Target5

3Blocked2

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

518Total Passes313

424Accurate Passes233

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1