Exeter City 2–6 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

2 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Leyton Orient

M. Alli 56', 47'

J. Donley 78'

A. Abdulai 64', 7', 5'

D. Markanday 34'

S. Clare 14'

1/28/2025

League One · Round 29St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Exeter City40%

×Draw23%

Leyton Orient37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.60

Exeter City

1.69

Leyton Orient

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.55

creates per match

1.01

2.19

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Exeter City

1.55

Leyton Orient

1.01

allows per match

Exeter City

2.19

Leyton Orient

1.82

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Exeter City-0.15scores less

Leyton Orient-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

63%

Exeter City or Leyton Orient

77%

Draw or Leyton Orient

60%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

21%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

82%

Exeter City 2+ goals

50%

Exeter City 3+ goals

24%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

80%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

47%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

52%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.19 · 10 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.55 + Leyton Orient defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

Leyton Orient attack 1.01 + Exeter City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Exeter City scores more

40%

level

23%

Leyton Orient scores more

37%

Exeter City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

A. Abdulai

Leyton Orient · M

9.7

Match Events

5'

A. Abdulai↳ D. Markanday

7'

A. Abdulai↳ J. Donley

14'

S. Clare↳ A. Abdulai

26'

Ethan Galbraith

34'

D. Markanday↳ J. Donley

46'

J. Colwill← J. Aitchison

46'

T. Yogane← J. Richards

46'

T. James← D. Markanday

47'

52'

55'

56'

60'

64'

A. Abdulai↳ J. Currie

68'

D. Mitchell← C. Watts

71'

J. Brown← S. Clare

78'

J. Donley↳ D. Happe

81'

D. Jaiyesimi← C. Kelman

81'

J. Sweeney← E. Galbraith

83'

J. Bird← J. Magennis

90+1'

Brandon Cooper

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterLeyton

Overview

65%Possession35%

7Total Shots13

3Corners4

10Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots13

4On Target9

1Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box9

0Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

497Total Passes264

389Accurate Passes151

78%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

0Yellow Cards4

2Offsides4