Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leyton Orient vs Exeter City — League Two 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Exeter City
Exeter City
C. Wilkinson 4'
J. Taylor 47'
10/27/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 9The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Leyton Orient40%
×Draw26%
Exeter City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.36
Exeter City
1.24

Leyton Orient creates 10% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.41
Exeter City
1.35

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.13
Exeter City
1.32

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
66%
Leyton Orient or Exeter City
74%
Draw or Exeter City
60%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
18%
Exeter City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
74%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
39%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
16%
Exeter City 1+ goals
71%
Exeter City 2+ goals
35%
Exeter City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
54%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
40%
level
26%
Exeter City scores more
34%

Leyton Orient at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
C. ClayLeyton OrientLeyton Orient · M
7.7

Match Events

4'
C. Wilkinson↳ C. Clay
23'
Conor Wilkinson
47'
J. Taylor↳ J. Key
63'
J. Widdowson← J. Brophy
68'
L. Dennis← C. Wilkinson
79'
J. Randall← M. Jay
88'
Joe Widdowson
88'
J. Dayton← J. McAnuff
90'
Ousseynou Cisse

Possession

54%Leyton

Shots

9Leyton

Pass accuracy

54%Leyton

Statistics

LeytonExeter
Overview
54%Possession46%
9Total Shots12
5Corners4
13Fouls16
Shots
9Total Shots12
1On Target5
6Off Target3
2Blocked4
3Inside Box9
6Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
429Total Passes358
305Accurate Passes215
71%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls16
3Yellow Cards0
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Exeter City

Leyton Orient and Exeter City drew 1-1 in League Two on October 27, 2020.

Goals: C. Wilkinson (4'), J. Taylor (47').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Breyer Group Stadium in London.