Leyton Orient 0–3 Derby: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Derby

12/9/2023

League One · Round 21Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Leyton Orient33%

×Draw27%

Derby39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.27

Leyton Orient

1.15

Derby

1.27

Derby creates 10% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 46 away

1.31

creates per match

1.39

1.15

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.31

Derby

1.39

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.15

Derby

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

61%

Leyton Orient or Derby

73%

Draw or Derby

67%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

14%

Derby wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

68%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

32%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

11%

Derby 1+ goals

72%

Derby 2+ goals

36%

Derby 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

46%

Derby (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 71 matches

Derby away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.31 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Derby attack 1.39 + Leyton Orient defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

33%

level

27%

Derby scores more

39%

Derby at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff