Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Derby vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
4/13/2024League OneLeague One · Round 44Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Derby49%
×Draw25%
Leyton Orient26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.59
Leyton Orient
1.07

Derby creates 49% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 71 away

creates per match

Derby
1.76
Leyton Orient
1.32

allows per match

Derby
0.83
Leyton Orient
1.42

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Derby or draw
74%
Derby or Leyton Orient
75%
Draw or Leyton Orient
51%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
26%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
80%
Derby 2+ goals
47%
Derby 3+ goals
21%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
66%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
29%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
66%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.76 + Leyton Orient defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

Leyton Orient attack 1.32 + Derby defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Derby scores more
49%
level
25%
Leyton Orient scores more
26%

Derby at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Derby 3–0 Leyton Orient

Derby beat Leyton Orient 3-0 in League One on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.