Leyton Orient 2–3 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Carlisle

D. Kemp 45+3'

C. Wilkinson 3'

G. Tanner 90+1'

L. Alessandra 54' (pen)

J. Mellish 42'

5/1/2021

League Two · Round 45The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient43%

×Draw27%

Carlisle30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.10

Leyton Orient

1.38

Carlisle

1.10

Leyton Orient creates 25% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 115 away

1.41

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

70%

Leyton Orient or Carlisle

73%

Draw or Carlisle

57%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

20%

Carlisle wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

75%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

40%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

16%

Carlisle 1+ goals

67%

Carlisle 2+ goals

30%

Carlisle 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

59%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

43%

level

27%

Carlisle scores more

30%

Leyton Orient at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Guy

Carlisle · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

C. Wilkinson

18'

Daniel Happe

22'

J. Mellish← O. Zanzala

42'

J. Mellish↳ J. Kayode

45+3'

D. Kemp

46'

S. Ling← J. Turley

54'

L. AlessandraPenalty

62'

Louis Dennis

63'

D. Johnson← L. Dennis

63'

C. Clay← J. McAnuff

63'

E. Walker← O. Patrick

80'

87'

89'

89'

90+1'

G. Tanner↳ L. Alessandra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonCarlisle

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots23

4Corners3

14Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots23

4On Target7

2Off Target13

2Blocked3

6Inside Box14

2Outside Box9

Passing

53%Possession47%

404Total Passes356

265Accurate Passes233

66%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Carlisle

Carlisle beat Leyton Orient 3-2 in League Two on May 1, 2021.

Goals: C. Wilkinson (3'), J. Mellish (42'), D. Kemp (45+3'), L. Alessandra (54' pen), G. Tanner (90+1').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 23.

The match was played at The Breyer Group Stadium in London.

Leyton Orient vs Carlisle — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Carlisle