Carlisle 0–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Leyton Orient

10/14/2023

League One · Round 13Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Carlisle30%

×Draw25%

Leyton Orient45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.54

Carlisle

1.21

Leyton Orient

1.54

Leyton Orient creates 27% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 71 away

1.00

creates per match

1.32

1.75

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Carlisle

1.00

Leyton Orient

1.32

allows per match

Carlisle

1.75

Leyton Orient

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

55%

Carlisle or Leyton Orient

75%

Draw or Leyton Orient

70%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

12%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

70%

Carlisle 2+ goals

34%

Carlisle 3+ goals

12%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

79%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

45%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

40%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.00 + Leyton Orient defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Leyton Orient attack 1.32 + Carlisle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Carlisle scores more

30%

level

25%

Leyton Orient scores more

45%

Leyton Orient at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff