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Carlisle vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Carlisle
Carlisle
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
10/22/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Carlisle38%
×Draw28%
Leyton Orient35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlisle
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 86 away

creates per match

Carlisle
1.31
Leyton Orient
1.13

allows per match

Carlisle
1.20
Leyton Orient
1.17

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw
65%
Carlisle or Leyton Orient
72%
Draw or Leyton Orient
62%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+
16%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals
71%
Carlisle 2+ goals
35%
Carlisle 3+ goals
13%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
69%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
33%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)
52%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.31 + Leyton Orient defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Leyton Orient attack 1.13 + Carlisle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Carlisle scores more
38%
level
28%
Leyton Orient scores more
35%

Carlisle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlisle vs Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient beat Carlisle 3-2 in League Two on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle, Cumbria.