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Leyton Orient vs Carlisle — League Two 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Carlisle
Carlisle
J. Wright 7' (pen)
J. Iredale 48'
10/26/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 16The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient43%
×Draw27%
Carlisle30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.38
Carlisle
1.10

Leyton Orient creates 25% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 115 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.41
Carlisle
1.07

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.13
Carlisle
1.35

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
70%
Leyton Orient or Carlisle
73%
Draw or Carlisle
57%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
20%
Carlisle wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
75%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
40%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
16%
Carlisle 1+ goals
67%
Carlisle 2+ goals
30%
Carlisle 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
59%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
43%
level
27%
Carlisle scores more
30%

Leyton Orient at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
J. IredaleCarlisleCarlisle · M
7.9

Match Events

7'
J. WrightPenalty
24'
Mo Sagaf
46'
O. Olomola← J. Branthwaite
48'
J. Iredale
63'
J. Maguire-Drew← J. Dayton
70'
Nathan Thomas
72'
L. Dennis← M. Harrold
80'
Byron Webster
83'
D. Gorman← G. Marsh
83'
H. Hope← N. Thomas
87'
N. Knight-Percival← M. Sagaf

Possession

59%Leyton

Shots

10Leyton

Pass accuracy

54%Leyton

Statistics

LeytonCarlisle
Overview
59%Possession41%
10Total Shots16
8Corners5
15Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots16
4On Target5
4Off Target4
2Blocked7
6Inside Box6
4Outside Box10
Passing
59%Possession41%
479Total Passes320
396Accurate Passes224
83%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls16
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Carlisle

Leyton Orient and Carlisle drew 1-1 in League Two on October 26, 2019.

Goals: J. Wright (7' pen), J. Iredale (48').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at The Breyer Group Stadium in London.