Leyton Orient 1–1 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cardiff

D. Ballard 12'

Y. Salech 33'

1/10/2026

League One · Round 26Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Leyton Orient32%

×Draw25%

Cardiff43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.54

Leyton Orient

1.29

Cardiff

1.54

Cardiff creates 19% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

1.42

creates per match

1.74

1.33

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.42

Cardiff

1.74

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.33

Cardiff

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

57%

Leyton Orient or Cardiff

75%

Draw or Cardiff

68%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

14%

Cardiff wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

72%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

37%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

14%

Cardiff 1+ goals

79%

Cardiff 2+ goals

45%

Cardiff 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

43%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.42 + Cardiff defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cardiff attack 1.74 + Leyton Orient defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

32%

level

25%

Cardiff scores more

43%

Cardiff at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Y. Salech

Cardiff · F

8.7

Match Events

12'

D. Ballard

33'

Y. Salech

42'

D. Turnbull← O. Kellyman

55'

55'

60'

61'

61'

75'

86'

C. Robinson← A. Robertson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonCardiff

Overview

39%Possession61%

16Total Shots11

1.70Expected Goals (xG)0.97

4Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots11

5On Target4

7Off Target3

4Blocked4

10Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

271Total Passes442

178Accurate Passes346

66%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Cardiff

Leyton Orient and Cardiff drew 1-1 in League One on January 10, 2026.

Goals: D. Ballard (12'), Y. Salech (33').

Cardiff controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.

Leyton Orient vs Cardiff — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Cardiff