Cardiff 4–3 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Leyton Orient

C. Robinson 71', 20'

Y. Salech 69'

D. Lawlor 52'

D. Ballard 62'

I. El Mizouni 54'

A. Connolly 29'

10/4/2025

League One · Round 11Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cardiff58%

×Draw22%

Leyton Orient20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.06

Cardiff

1.94

Leyton Orient

1.06

Cardiff creates 83% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

2.17

creates per match

1.13

1.00

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Cardiff

2.17

Leyton Orient

1.13

allows per match

Cardiff

1.00

Leyton Orient

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

80%

Cardiff or Leyton Orient

78%

Draw or Leyton Orient

42%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

34%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

86%

Cardiff 2+ goals

58%

Cardiff 3+ goals

30%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

65%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

29%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

74%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 2.17 + Leyton Orient defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.94

Leyton Orient attack 1.13 + Cardiff defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cardiff scores more

58%

level

22%

Leyton Orient scores more

20%

Cardiff at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

48

D. Lawlor

Cardiff · D

8.7

Match Events

20'

C. Robinson↳ C. Willock

29'

A. Connolly

30'

Ronan Kpakio

52'

D. Lawlor↳ R. Wintle

54'

I. El Mizouni↳ A. Connolly

57'

Chris Willock

57'

Sean Clare

62'

D. Ballard

65'

O. Kellyman← I. Davies

65'

D. Turnbull← R. Wintle

65'

Y. Salech← J. Colwill

69'

Y. Salech↳ R. Colwill

71'

C. Robinson↳ R. Kpakio

76'

D. Mitchell← R. Edmonds-Green

76'

A. Abdulai← T. Adaramola

78'

Aaron Connolly

79'

J. Koroma← D. Ballard

85'

J. Moorhouse← T. Bakinson

85'

D. Jaiyesimi← C. Wellens

87'

W. Fish← C. Robinson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffLeyton

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots26

6Corners8

4Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots26

7On Target11

5Off Target5

4Blocked10

13Inside Box19

3Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

340Total Passes400

257Accurate Passes295

76%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

4Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Leyton Orient

Cardiff beat Leyton Orient 4-3 in League One on October 4, 2025.

Goals: C. Robinson (20', 71'), A. Connolly (29'), D. Lawlor (52'), I. El Mizouni (54'), D. Ballard (62'), Y. Salech (69').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (54%) and registered 26 shots to 16.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff.

Cardiff vs Leyton Orient — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Leyton Orient