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Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
Preview
15:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
1/23/2027League OneLeague One · Round 27Brisbane Road
Big match
39%
Leyton Orient
model favours
39%26%35%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Leyton Orient39%
×Draw26%
Burton Albion35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.41
Burton Albion
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.18
Burton Albion
1.32

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.31
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.01on par
Burton Albion-0.21scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
65%
Leyton Orient or Burton Albion
74%
Draw or Burton Albion
61%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
18%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
76%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
41%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
17%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
73%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
38%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
53%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.18 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Burton Albion attack 1.32 + Leyton Orient defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
39%
level
26%
Burton Albion scores more
35%

Leyton Orient at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches
  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches
  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Leyton Orient
Balanced
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
53%PossessionBiggest gap43%
71%Pass accuracy64%
11.3Shots10.2
1.12xG1.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Leyton OrientBurton Albion

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Leyton Orient
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
2–24–01–20–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orient
LLWWD
Albion
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leyton Orient face Burton Albion (League One)

League One returns with Leyton Orient hosting Burton Albion. Match starts January 23, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Leyton Orient host Burton Albion at Brisbane Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.