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Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
2/17/2024League OneLeague One · Round 34Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Leyton Orient45%
×Draw26%
Burton Albion29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.46
Burton Albion
1.12

Leyton Orient creates 30% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 179 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.31
Burton Albion
1.09

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.15
Burton Albion
1.60

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
71%
Leyton Orient or Burton Albion
74%
Draw or Burton Albion
55%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
22%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
77%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
43%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
18%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
67%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
31%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
61%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 71 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.60 · 179 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.31 + Burton Albion defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Burton Albion attack 1.09 + Leyton Orient defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
45%
level
26%
Burton Albion scores more
29%

Leyton Orient at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion

Burton Albion beat Leyton Orient 2-1 in League One on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Gaughan Group Stadium in London.