Leyton Orient 2–2 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Burton Albion

D. Ballard 52'

W. Forrester 2'

A. Hartridge 58'

F. Tavares 34'

5/2/2026

League One · Round 46Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Leyton Orient39%

×Draw26%

Burton Albion35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.31

Leyton Orient

1.41

Burton Albion

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.18

creates per match

1.30

1.31

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.18

Burton Albion

1.30

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.31

Burton Albion

1.64

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.01on par

Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

65%

Leyton Orient or Burton Albion

74%

Draw or Burton Albion

61%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

18%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

76%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

41%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

17%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

73%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

38%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

53%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.18 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Leyton Orient defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

39%

level

26%

Burton Albion scores more

35%

Leyton Orient at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

W. Forrester

Leyton Orient · D

7.9

Match Events

2'

W. Forrester

34'

F. Tavares

46'

I. El Mizouni← S. Clare

52'

D. Ballard↳ M. Craig

54'

James Morris

55'

George Evans

58'

A. Hartridge↳ J. Beesley

59'

D. Happe← J. Simpson

63'

S. Krubally← F. Tavares

68'

T. Bakinson← A. Abdulai

68'

T. James← M. Craig

78'

S. Perkins← A. Connolly

82'

T. Vancooten← J. Moon

82'

T. Sibbick← J. J. McKiernan

90'

F. Delap← J. Beesley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonBurton

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots14

1.34Expected Goals (xG)2.93

5Corners1

12Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target8

6Off Target2

3Blocked4

11Inside Box11

2Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

316Total Passes270

220Accurate Passes168

70%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0