Leyton Orient 1–2 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Birmingham

E. Galbraith 14'

A. May 20'

K. Anderson 7'

8/24/2024

League One · Round 3Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Leyton Orient29%

×Draw27%

Birmingham44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.40

Leyton Orient

1.08

Birmingham

1.40

Birmingham creates 30% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 23 away

1.30

creates per match

1.61

1.18

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.30

Birmingham

1.61

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.18

Birmingham

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

56%

Leyton Orient or Birmingham

73%

Draw or Birmingham

71%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

11%

Birmingham wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

66%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

29%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

10%

Birmingham 1+ goals

75%

Birmingham 2+ goals

41%

Birmingham 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

40%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 79 matches

Birmingham away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.30 + Birmingham defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Birmingham attack 1.61 + Leyton Orient defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

29%

level

27%

Birmingham scores more

44%

Birmingham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. May

Birmingham · F

8.3

Match Events

7'

K. Anderson↳ A. May

14'

E. Galbraith↳ Z. Obiero

20'

23'

45'

50'

52'

55'

W. Willumsson← M. Leonard

66'

A. Yokoyama← E. Hansson

66'

T. Gardner-Hickman← L. Harris

71'

D. Agyei← Z. Obiero

84'

L. Jutkiewicz← A. May

84'

K. Miyoshi← K. Anderson

89'

S. Perkins← C. Kelman

89'

D. Jaiyesimi← O. ONeill

89'

D. Pratley← J. Brown

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonBirmingham

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots11

6Corners5

18Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target3

4Off Target3

4Blocked5

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

351Total Passes538

266Accurate Passes446

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2