Birmingham 2–0 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

E. Laird 84'

T. Gardner-Hickman 53'

2/25/2025

League One · Round 26St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham57%

×Draw24%

Leyton Orient19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.89

Birmingham

1.73

Leyton Orient

0.89

Birmingham creates 94% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 78 away

2.04

creates per match

1.29

0.48

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Birmingham

2.04

Leyton Orient

1.29

allows per match

Birmingham

0.48

Leyton Orient

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

81%

Birmingham or Leyton Orient

76%

Draw or Leyton Orient

43%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

32%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

82%

Birmingham 2+ goals

52%

Birmingham 3+ goals

25%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

59%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

22%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

75%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 2.04 + Leyton Orient defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.73

Leyton Orient attack 1.29 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Birmingham scores more

57%

level

24%

Leyton Orient scores more

19%

Birmingham at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

C. Klarer

Birmingham · D

9.0

Match Events

12'

Jack Currie

16'

J. Sweeney← D. Markanday

16'

D. Ball← C. Kelman

53'

T. Gardner-Hickman

54'

Taylor Gardner-Hickman

54'

A. Abdulai← D. Agyei

66'

R. Williams← E. Galbraith

67'

L. Jutkiewicz← W. Willumsson

67'

S. Perkins← J. Donley

68'

E. Hansson← T. Gardner-Hickman

84'

E. Laird↳ C. Klarer

85'

L. Harris← K. Dowell

90'

Darren Pratley

90+1'

K. Bielik← A. May

90+1'

A. Sampsted← E. Laird

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamLeyton

Overview

77%Possession23%

27Total Shots3

8Corners3

14Fouls9

Shots

27Total Shots3

10On Target0

9Off Target1

8Blocked2

18Inside Box2

9Outside Box1

Passing

77%Possession23%

647Total Passes190

547Accurate Passes100

85%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1