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Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
Preview
15:00
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
11/21/2026League OneLeague One · Round 16Brisbane Road
45%
Leyton Orient
model favours
45%25%30%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Leyton Orient45%
×Draw25%
AFC Wimbledon30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.51
AFC Wimbledon
1.18

Leyton Orient creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.06
AFC Wimbledon
1.10

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.25
AFC Wimbledon
1.96

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.06on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.17scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
70%
Leyton Orient or AFC Wimbledon
75%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
55%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
22%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
78%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
44%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
19%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
69%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
33%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
60%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.06 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.51

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.10 + Leyton Orient defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
45%
level
25%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
30%

Leyton Orient at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Leyton Orient
Balanced
AFC Wimbledon
Balanced
53%PossessionBiggest gap47%
71%Pass accuracy68%
11.3Shots10.7
1.07xG1.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Leyton OrientAFC Wimbledon

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Leyton Orient
0
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 50%
4–21–31–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orient
LLWWD
Wimbledon
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leyton Orient face AFC Wimbledon (League One)

League One returns with Leyton Orient hosting AFC Wimbledon. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Leyton Orient host AFC Wimbledon at Brisbane Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.