Leyton Orient 1–0 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

G. Moncur 64'

2/4/2023

League Two · Round 30Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Leyton Orient41%

×Draw28%

AFC Wimbledon30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.03

Leyton Orient

1.25

AFC Wimbledon

1.03

Leyton Orient creates 21% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 73 away

1.41

creates per match

0.93

1.13

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

AFC Wimbledon

0.93

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

70%

Leyton Orient or AFC Wimbledon

72%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

59%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

18%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

71%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

36%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

13%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

64%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

28%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

58%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

41%

level

28%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

30%

Leyton Orient at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

G. Moncur

Leyton Orient · M

7.6

Match Events

21'

Paul Kalambayi

32'

C. Gunter← H. Biler

36'

Jayden Sweeney

53'

C. Clay← J. Lyden

53'

T. James← J. Sweeney

64'

G. Moncur

65'

A. Drinan← C. Kelman

65'

R. Sotiriou← T. Archibald

68'

A. Thompson← R. Hunt

70'

J. Currie← L. Brown

70'

D. Jaiyesimi← Ali Al Hamadi

70'

S. Janneh← H. Pell

79'

Kieran Sadlier

90+4'

Idris El Mizouni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonAFC

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots11

8Corners2

15Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots11

5On Target2

2Off Target6

5Blocked3

5Inside Box5

7Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

398Total Passes283

288Accurate Passes170

72%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon

Leyton Orient beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 in League Two on February 4, 2023.

Goals: G. Moncur (64').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.

Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon