AFC Wimbledon 2–0 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Leyton Orient

H. Pell 35'

A. Assal 19'

11/8/2022

League Two · Round 8The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

AFC Wimbledon42%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.08

AFC Wimbledon

1.33

Leyton Orient

1.08

AFC Wimbledon creates 23% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 94 away

1.47

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.47

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.00

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

70%

AFC Wimbledon or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

58%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

19%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

74%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

38%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

15%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

66%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

29%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

58%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.47 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

42%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

30%

AFC Wimbledon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Gunter

AFC Wimbledon · D

7.6

Match Events

19'

21'

32'

35'

41'

44'

45+4'

60'

65'

65'

G. Moncur← T. Archibald

72'

Ayoub Assal

73'

George Marsh

74'

C. Kelman← R. Sotiriou

87'

J. Wareham← A. Drinan

90+9'

George Moncur

90+1'

Omar Beckles

90+2'

I. Ogundere← A. Assal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCLeyton

Overview

37%Possession63%

7Total Shots10

0Corners5

18Fouls20

Shots

7Total Shots10

3On Target3

2Off Target3

2Blocked4

4Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

229Total Passes379

111Accurate Passes264

48%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls20

4Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2

Match Recap: AFC Wimbledon vs Leyton Orient

AFC Wimbledon beat Leyton Orient 2-0 in League Two on November 8, 2022.

Goals: A. Assal (19'), H. Pell (35').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (63%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.

AFC Wimbledon vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: AFC Wimbledon vs Leyton Orient