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Levski Sofia vs Hebar 1918 — First League 2026

Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
9/3/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Levski Sofia59%
×Draw24%
Hebar 191818%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Sofia
1.73
Hebar 1918
0.83

Levski Sofia creates 108% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 54 away

creates per match

Levski Sofia
1.66
Hebar 1918
0.91

allows per match

Levski Sofia
0.76
Hebar 1918
1.81

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.00on par
Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Hebar 1918 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw
82%
Levski Sofia or Hebar 1918
76%
Draw or Hebar 1918
41%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+
33%
Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals
82%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
52%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
25%
Hebar 1918 1+ goals
56%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
20%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
77%
Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 137 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.81 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 1.66 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hebar 1918 attack 0.91 + Levski Sofia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Levski Sofia scores more
59%
level
24%
Hebar 1918 scores more
18%

Levski Sofia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Sofia vs Hebar 1918

Levski Sofia beat Hebar 1918 1-0 in First League on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov in Sofia.