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Hebar 1918 vs Levski Sofia — First League 2026

Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
3/5/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Hebar 191824%
×Draw27%
Levski Sofia49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar 1918
0.88
Levski Sofia
1.40

Levski Sofia creates 59% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 138 away

creates per match

Hebar 1918
0.83
Levski Sofia
1.41

allows per match

Hebar 1918
1.40
Levski Sofia
0.93

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par
Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Levski Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw
51%
Hebar 1918 or Levski Sofia
73%
Draw or Levski Sofia
76%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
8%
Levski Sofia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals
59%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
22%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
6%
Levski Sofia 1+ goals
75%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
41%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
33%
Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 0.83 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more
24%
level
27%
Levski Sofia scores more
49%

Levski Sofia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebar 1918 vs Levski Sofia

Levski Sofia beat Hebar 1918 2-0 in First League on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Pazardzhik.