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Levski Sofia vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
J. El Jemili 44'
G. Aleksandrov 43' (OG)
S. Bukolda 49'
6/30/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Levski Sofia66%
×Draw19%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Sofia
2.23
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.95

Levski Sofia creates 135% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Levski Sofia
2.33
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.06

allows per match

Levski Sofia
0.83
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2.13

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.00on par
Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw
85%
Levski Sofia or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
81%
Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
34%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+
43%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals
89%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
65%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
38%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
61%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
25%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
82%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 2.33 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.23

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.06 + Levski Sofia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Levski Sofia scores more
66%
level
19%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
15%

Levski Sofia at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
G. AleksandrovOwn goal
44'
J. El Jemili
49'
S. Bukolda

Statistics

LevskiEtar
Overview
7Corners3

Match Recap: Levski Sofia vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Levski Sofia beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 30, 2023.

Goals: G. Aleksandrov (43' o.g.), J. El Jemili (44'), S. Bukolda (49').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Pravets.