Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Levski Sofia — First League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 66+ matches
Etar Veliko Tarnovo28%
Levski Sofia45%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Levski Sofia creates 34% more chances
Season form · 66 home / 138 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches
Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.08 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01
Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Levski Sofia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Ludogorets
CSKA SofiaLevski Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
BeroeEtar Veliko Tarnovo
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
Botev Vratsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
Septemvri Sofia
Dunav Ruse
Vereya Stara ZagoraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Etar Veliko Tarnovo host Levski Sofia on Saturday, 16 March 2024 at 13:15. The match is part of the First League 2026/2027 season.
First League: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0–3 Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3-0 in First League on March 16, 2024.
Goals: Jawad El Jemili (52', 90+7'), M. Petkov (82').
Levski Sofia controlled possession (68%) and registered 14 shots to 1.
The match was played at Stadion Ivailo in Veliko Târnovo.