Levski Sofia 1–0 Beroe: Result & Stats

Levski Sofia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Beroe

4/20/2024

First League · Round 30Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Levski Sofia54%

×Draw26%

Beroe20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski SofiaExpected goals in this matchBeroe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.84

Levski Sofia

1.56

Beroe

0.84

Levski Sofia creates 86% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 138 away

1.66

creates per match

0.93

0.76

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Levski Sofia

1.66

Beroe

0.93

allows per match

Levski Sofia

0.76

Beroe

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Beroe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw

80%

Levski Sofia or Beroe

74%

Draw or Beroe

46%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

29%

Beroe wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

79%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

46%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

21%

Beroe 1+ goals

57%

Beroe 2+ goals

21%

Beroe 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

73%

Beroe (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 136 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 1.66 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.56

Beroe attack 0.93 + Levski Sofia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Levski Sofia scores more

54%

level

26%

Beroe scores more

20%

Levski Sofia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff