Beroe 0–1 Levski Sofia: Result & Stats

Beroe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Levski Sofia

4/6/2025

First League · Round 28Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Beroe32%

×Draw28%

Levski Sofia39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeroeExpected goals in this matchLevski Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.21

Beroe

1.07

Levski Sofia

1.21

Levski Sofia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 138 away

1.22

creates per match

1.41

1.01

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Beroe

1.22

Levski Sofia

1.41

allows per match

Beroe

1.01

Levski Sofia

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beroe+0.00on par

Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe ↓

Levski Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Beroe or draw

61%

Beroe or Levski Sofia

72%

Draw or Levski Sofia

68%

Winning margin

Beroe wins by 2+

13%

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Beroe 1+ goals

66%

Beroe 2+ goals

29%

Beroe 3+ goals

9%

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

70%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

34%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Beroe (draw refunded)

45%

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe attack 1.22 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Beroe defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Beroe scores more

32%

level

28%

Levski Sofia scores more

39%

Levski Sofia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff