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Levski Sofia II vs CSKA 1948 Sofia III — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Sofia II
Levski Sofia II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
5/8/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 33Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Levski Sofia II53%
×Draw23%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Sofia II
1.83
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.17

Levski Sofia II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 52 away

creates per match

Levski Sofia II
1.86
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.21

allows per match

Levski Sofia II
1.13
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.79

finishing

Levski Sofia II+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia II ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Levski Sofia II or draw
76%
Levski Sofia II or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
77%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
47%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia II wins by 2+
30%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Levski Sofia II 1+ goals
84%
Levski Sofia II 2+ goals
54%
Levski Sofia II 3+ goals
28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
69%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
33%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)
68%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia II attack 1.86 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.83

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Levski Sofia II scores more
53%
level
23%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
24%

Levski Sofia II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Levski Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Levski Sofia II 2–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Levski Sofia II beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte in Sofia.