Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Levski Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Levski Sofia II
Levski Sofia II
10/21/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 14Stadion NSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III47%
×Draw26%
Levski Sofia II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.50
Levski Sofia II
1.06

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 42% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 69 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.51
Levski Sofia II
0.78

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.34
Levski Sofia II
1.49

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par
Levski Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Levski Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw
73%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Levski Sofia II
74%
Draw or Levski Sofia II
53%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
24%
Levski Sofia II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
78%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
44%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
19%
Levski Sofia II 1+ goals
65%
Levski Sofia II 2+ goals
29%
Levski Sofia II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
64%
Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Levski Sofia II away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Levski Sofia II attack 0.78 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
47%
level
26%
Levski Sofia II scores more
27%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2–3 Levski Sofia II

Levski Sofia II beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3-2 in Third League - Southwest on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion NSA in Sofia.