Levski Sofia II 2–0 Botev Ihtiman: Result & Stats

Levski Sofia II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Botev Ihtiman

8/3/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 1Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Levski Sofia II54%

×Draw23%

Botev Ihtiman22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchBotev Ihtiman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.05

Levski Sofia II

1.77

Botev Ihtiman

1.05

Levski Sofia II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 132 away

1.86

creates per match

0.98

1.13

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Levski Sofia II

1.86

Botev Ihtiman

0.98

allows per match

Levski Sofia II

1.13

Botev Ihtiman

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Sofia II+0.00on par

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia II ↓

Botev Ihtiman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Levski Sofia II or draw

78%

Levski Sofia II or Botev Ihtiman

77%

Draw or Botev Ihtiman

46%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia II wins by 2+

30%

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Levski Sofia II 1+ goals

83%

Levski Sofia II 2+ goals

53%

Levski Sofia II 3+ goals

26%

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals

65%

Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals

28%

Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)

71%

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia II attack 1.86 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Levski Sofia II scores more

54%

level

23%

Botev Ihtiman scores more

22%

Levski Sofia II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Levski Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff