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Botev Ihtiman vs Levski Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Levski Sofia II
Levski Sofia II
9/13/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Botev Ihtiman49%
×Draw25%
Levski Sofia II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Ihtiman
1.56
Levski Sofia II
1.04

Botev Ihtiman creates 50% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 69 away

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.63
Levski Sofia II
0.78

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.29
Levski Sofia II
1.49

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par
Levski Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Levski Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw
75%
Botev Ihtiman or Levski Sofia II
75%
Draw or Levski Sofia II
51%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
25%
Levski Sofia II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
79%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
46%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
21%
Levski Sofia II 1+ goals
65%
Levski Sofia II 2+ goals
28%
Levski Sofia II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
66%
Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Levski Sofia II away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Levski Sofia II attack 0.78 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more
49%
level
25%
Levski Sofia II scores more
25%

Botev Ihtiman at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Botev Ihtiman 2–0 Levski Sofia II

Botev Ihtiman beat Levski Sofia II 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Ihtiman.