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Levski Rakovski vs Bansko — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bansko
Bansko
9/30/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 9Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Levski Rakovski34%
×Draw27%
Bansko39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Rakovski
1.18
Bansko
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 129 away

creates per match

Levski Rakovski
1.00
Bansko
0.98

allows per match

Levski Rakovski
1.56
Bansko
1.36

finishing

Levski Rakovski+0.00on par
Bansko+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Rakovski ↓

Bansko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Levski Rakovski or draw
61%
Levski Rakovski or Bansko
73%
Draw or Bansko
66%

Winning margin

Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
14%
Bansko wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
69%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
33%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
12%
Bansko 1+ goals
72%
Bansko 2+ goals
36%
Bansko 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
47%
Bansko (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Rakovski at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Bansko away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Rakovski attack 1.00 + Bansko defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bansko attack 0.98 + Levski Rakovski defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Levski Rakovski scores more
34%
level
27%
Bansko scores more
39%

Bansko at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Rakovski vs Bansko

Levski Rakovski and Bansko drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sofia.