Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bansko vs Levski Rakovski — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
FT
5 – 0
Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
2/25/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 20Stadion Sveti Petar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bansko60%
×Draw22%
Levski Rakovski18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
1.91
Levski Rakovski
0.93

Bansko creates 105% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 16 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
Levski Rakovski
0.88

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
Levski Rakovski
2.19

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Levski Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
82%
Bansko or Levski Rakovski
78%
Draw or Levski Rakovski
40%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
36%
Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
85%
Bansko 2+ goals
57%
Bansko 3+ goals
30%
Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
61%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
24%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
77%
Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Levski Rakovski away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Levski Rakovski defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.91

Levski Rakovski attack 0.88 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bansko scores more
60%
level
22%
Levski Rakovski scores more
18%

Bansko at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Bansko 5–0 Levski Rakovski

Bansko beat Levski Rakovski 5-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar in Bansko.