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Levski Rakovski vs Balkan Botevgrad — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
FT
1 – 3
Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
10/15/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 11Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Levski Rakovski36%
×Draw25%
Balkan Botevgrad39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Rakovski
1.36
Balkan Botevgrad
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 131 away

creates per match

Levski Rakovski
1.00
Balkan Botevgrad
1.27

allows per match

Levski Rakovski
1.56
Balkan Botevgrad
1.73

finishing

Levski Rakovski+0.00on par
Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Rakovski ↓

Balkan Botevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Levski Rakovski or draw
61%
Levski Rakovski or Balkan Botevgrad
75%
Draw or Balkan Botevgrad
64%

Winning margin

Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
16%
Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
74%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
39%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
16%
Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
76%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
41%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
48%
Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Rakovski at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Balkan Botevgrad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Rakovski attack 1.00 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.27 + Levski Rakovski defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Levski Rakovski scores more
36%
level
25%
Balkan Botevgrad scores more
39%

Balkan Botevgrad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Levski Rakovski 1–3 Balkan Botevgrad

Balkan Botevgrad beat Levski Rakovski 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sofia.