Balkan Botevgrad 5–1 Levski Rakovski

Balkan Botevgrad

FT

5 – 1

Levski Rakovski

3/11/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 22Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad61%

×Draw21%

Levski Rakovski18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Balkan BotevgradExpected goals in this matchLevski Rakovski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.01

Balkan Botevgrad

2.04

Levski Rakovski

1.01

Balkan Botevgrad creates 102% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 16 away

1.89

creates per match

0.88

1.15

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad

1.89

Levski Rakovski

0.88

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad

1.15

Levski Rakovski

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Levski Rakovski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw

82%

Balkan Botevgrad or Levski Rakovski

79%

Draw or Levski Rakovski

39%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+

37%

Levski Rakovski wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals

87%

Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals

60%

Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals

33%

Levski Rakovski 1+ goals

64%

Levski Rakovski 2+ goals

27%

Levski Rakovski 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)

77%

Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Levski Rakovski away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Levski Rakovski defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.04

Levski Rakovski attack 0.88 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more

61%

level

21%

Levski Rakovski scores more

18%

Balkan Botevgrad at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff