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Levski Lom vs Etar VT II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
FT
1 – 1
Etar VT II
Etar VT II
12/6/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 15Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Lom83%
×Draw12%
Etar VT II5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
2.71
Etar VT II
0.52

Levski Lom creates 421% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
3.06
Etar VT II
0.85

allows per match

Levski Lom
0.18
Etar VT II
2.35

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
Etar VT II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Etar VT II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
95%
Levski Lom or Etar VT II
88%
Draw or Etar VT II
17%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
62%
Etar VT II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
93%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
75%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
50%
Etar VT II 1+ goals
41%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
10%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
94%
Etar VT II (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.18 · 17 matches

Etar VT II away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.35 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 3.06 + Etar VT II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.71

Etar VT II attack 0.85 + Levski Lom defence 0.18 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Levski Lom scores more
83%
level
12%
Etar VT II scores more
5%

Levski Lom at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Lom vs Etar VT II

Levski Lom and Etar VT II drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.