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Etar VT II vs Levski Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Etar VT II
Etar VT II
FT
2 – 3
Levski Lom
Levski Lom
5/19/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 32Stadion Trifon Ivanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Etar VT II24%
×Draw23%
Levski Lom54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar VT II
1.18
Levski Lom
1.88

Levski Lom creates 59% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Etar VT II
1.89
Levski Lom
2.00

allows per match

Etar VT II
1.75
Levski Lom
0.47

finishing

Etar VT II+0.00on par
Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar VT II ↓

Levski Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Etar VT II or draw
46%
Etar VT II or Levski Lom
77%
Draw or Levski Lom
76%

Winning margin

Etar VT II wins by 2+
9%
Levski Lom wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Etar VT II 1+ goals
69%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
33%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
12%
Levski Lom 1+ goals
85%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
56%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Etar VT II (draw refunded)
31%
Levski Lom (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar VT II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.75 · 83 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar VT II attack 1.89 + Levski Lom defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Levski Lom attack 2.00 + Etar VT II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Etar VT II scores more
24%
level
23%
Levski Lom scores more
54%

Levski Lom at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Etar VT II 2 – 3 Levski Lom

Levski Lom beat Etar VT II 3-2 in Third League - Northwest on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Trifon Ivanov in Veliko Tarnovo.